Pattern Quiets Down - Next Run of Severe Storms in Early April?

After an early run of storm systems brought drought relief and severe storms to the Southern Plains and Midwest in late February and early March the pattern quiets down for the next couple of weeks.

An expansive ridge of high pressure is expected to establish itself over the western United States slipping North America back into a ridge-west, trough-east alignment. This means the pattern trends quiet and dry across the Lower 48 with a heat wave expanding from the western U.S. into the Plains during the last 1-2 weeks of March. Record breaking warmth is expected in the western and central U.S., with unseasonably mild spring weather reaching the Midwest.

Models are quiet when it comes to high-impact storm systems ejecting across the Rockies near-term. Instead, we sort of move from a big ridge out west in week 1, to fast, zonal flow in week 2. Clipper systems and fast-moving, moisture starved lows may bring a couple of chance for showers and storms and perhaps a low-end severe risk March 24-31, but I think we're looking into early April before we get back into organized severe weather events, and high-profile storm chasing days.

There isn't much to look at with confidence at this range but there are a few reasons to start at least mentally planning for the return of big severe weather events in the Central U.S. in the beginning of April.

I'm not an MJO expert, but this is one teleconnection that's been increasingly tied to bursts of severe weather activity across North America with research in recent years. Forecasts call for the MJO to wake up a bit and perhaps progress from phases 7-8 into 1-2 over the next 2-3 weeks, which could favor a transition toward a stormier pattern across the U.S. in that 2-3 week time frame.

Global ensembles are starting to hint at a climatologically "typical" progression from this quiet late March pattern back into an active pattern in early April. The western U.S. ridge mostly holds dominance through late March, though a couple of stronger systems running over the top of it may "flatten" it some in the March 24-31 time frame which as mentioned above, may lead to a crashing cold front or two with the opportunity for a rainy/stormy day or two along the front.

Beyond the last week of March there's a subtle, but consistent signal emerging for a return to above-average wetness from Texas to the Great Lakes and the return of a trough-west, ridge-east alignment.

There are absolutely zero specifics to latch onto here, but this time of year I just like to start thinking about "windows of opportunity". We just had a window that brought several significant severe weather days from Feb 15 to Mar 15 that was well advertised by global ensembles. We're in a quiet period now that's likely to span the March 17-31 time frame, but I'm starting to wonder if the next window of opportunity for high-impact severe storms across the U.S. may start to emerge April 1-15.

For now it's nothing more than a signal to watch while we enjoy some beautiful, mild early spring weather in the Central U.S.