Big Mean Windbag, or High Risk/High Reward Dryline Play Today

There are two distinctly different plays for observing significant severe weather from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon and evening.

The more certain play for experiencing severe weather is the northern zone of today's risk, centered on the Missouri River Valley. Here, numerous severe storms should erupt by 3-4 PM along and ahead of a surface low and sharp cold front. Favorable wind shear ahead of the surface low will favor storm rotation, but strong forcing along the cold front and the presence of deep cold air in proximity to the storms may also favor rapid upscale growth of storms into one or more lines, while potentially hindering traditional supercell tornado processes.

An early supercell + tornado play is possible across southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska, but the more likely scenario involves the quick development of a fast-moving QLCS, or bowing line of storms with widespread straight-line wind gusts over 70 MPH. Even though storms are likely to take on a linear storm mode in this zone, increasingly favorable low-level shear and intensifying low-level jet could foster embedded tornadoes as the line races northeast into western Iowa and southern Minnesota.

If I'm playing this northern zone, I'm potentially adjusting my expectations into "let the line mature and get run over at peak intensity" mode, which could involve getting run over by a big mean wind bag with an ominous shelf cloud, sirens sounding in some nearby community, and 70+ mph winds and a potential embedded tornado.

The higher risk, higher reward play is potentially further south along the dryline into north-central Kansas, perhaps in the Concordia vicinity. Patience will be important down here with storms potentially not breaching a stout cap along the dryline until the late-evening. If the cap breaks in this area and a robust storm establishes itself, a big photogenic evening tornado is on the table.

This late-evening, slow-moving supercell would be a million times more enjoyable to observe, but you also run the risk of observing nothing if the cap holds, while a high-end severe weather event unfolds to the north.