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Winter Weather Disaster | Deep South Braces For Record Cold, Snow, and Ice


The combination of record breaking cold and winter precipitation may strain local infrastructure across the Southern U.S. next week.
The combination of record breaking cold and winter precipitation may strain local infrastructure across the Southern U.S. next week.

There's a strong possibility we may see a regional winter weather disaster in the southern U.S. next week, largely centered on January 20-23, 2025. Almost the entirety of the Lower 48 east of the Rocky Mountains is looking at a deep shot of Arctic air, but it's along the Gulf Coast that the dangerous combination of record breaking cold and significant winter precipitation may push infrastructure to its limits.


There will be colder temperatures elsewhere, like across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest where overnight lows may fall to between -15 and -25 deg F early next week. Certainly there are regions that have or will see heavier 24 hour snowfalls this winter. But when it comes to a multi-day cold snap that will send sub-freezing temperatures down to the Gulf Coast with a potential winter storm level precipitation event there simply isn't a lot of historical context, and infrastructure simply isn't built to weather it.


It may be that the worst impacts present themselves in localized areas, perhaps in the form of strained power grids or treacherous travel leading to accidents and road hazards. The potential for freezing rain and ice accumulation concerns me as well, with the early look showing the greatest risk for ice impacts may be across eastern Texas and near the Florida/Georgia line on Tuesday - Tuesday night.


We're about 3-5 days out from when I expect the worst impacts to settle over the region so there's time yet to sort out specifics and potential trouble spots, but for now the broad look is concerning regionally.


Here's a look at this all unfolds:


A deep, positively tilted trough with a broad zone of fast jet stream flow across the southern U.S. helps deliver a shot of Arctic air to areas east of the Rockies with wintry precipitation near the Gulf Coast.
A deep, positively tilted trough with a broad zone of fast jet stream flow across the southern U.S. helps deliver a shot of Arctic air to areas east of the Rockies with wintry precipitation near the Gulf Coast.

Cold air spills out of Canada this weekened, Jan 18-19.
Cold air spills out of Canada this weekened, Jan 18-19.

Cold air outbreak peaks across the U.S. on Monday night/Tuesday morning
Cold air outbreak peaks across the U.S. on Monday night/Tuesday morning

An area of low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico draws moisture northward up and over the top of the polar front, leading to a broad area of wintry precipitation.
An area of low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico draws moisture northward up and over the top of the polar front, leading to a broad area of wintry precipitation.

Early look at precipitation timing from the ECMWF
Early look at precipitation timing from the ECMWF

Early look at precipitation timing from the ECMWF
Early look at precipitation timing from the ECMWF

Probability of 3" or more of snow falling from the EPS
Probability of 3" or more of snow falling from the EPS

Probability of 3" or more of snow falling from the EPS
Probability of 3" or more of snow falling from the EPS


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