Tornado Alley Turning Active Soon?

A pair of cut-off lows have shut much of the U.S. down to organized severe weather during the first week of May. Texas has seen a continuance to their recent active stretch of severe storms thanks to a slow-moving upper-level disturbance over the Southern Plains, but the rest of the Plains and Midwest are quiet this week, a week that's riddled with significant tornado anniversaries from outbreaks of the past.

This quiet stretch isn't uncommon though. Even the most active years in Tornado Alley have lulls and quiet stretches where the jet stream and North American storm track aren't conducive to organized storms. Sometimes it's a big ridge of high pressure roasting the Plains, sometimes it's a period of weak and disorganized flow during a pattern reset, and sometimes it's a pair of cut-off lows that make folks giggle at jet stream weather maps on social media.

Every year has stretches where storm chasers, meteorologists, and residents across the Central U.S. wait and wonder when the switch will flip back on.

GEFS 200 mb height + winds and the probability of 500 j/kg cape - the overlap shows models hinting at a period of favorable jet stream flow over an unstable region from the Plains to the Midwest

The early read right now suggests we could see another period of sustained southwesterly flow over the top of an increasingly unstable region spanning from the Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest after approximately Wed, May 14th or so. Speculation mostly needs to stop there as we look out into the week 2 period, spanning from May 14-21.

Global ensembles are starting to converge on a favorable look for organized severe storms and storm chasing opportunities across the Plains and Midwest May 14-21, but details on the quality of chasing and the severity of any potential severe weather days / events won't be on the discussion table for a few more days, if not longer.

In recent weeks we've seen how forecasts evolve during that hard-to-read week 2 time frame and just how hard it is to properly calibrate expectations. The early read on the April 24-28 time frame showed high-end potential, invoking analogs of some of the most extreme tornado outbreaks and storm chasing periods on record. Then the pendulum swung back the other direction with storm chasing chat rooms on suicide watch as crystal-ball-tornado-outbreaks turned into elongated low pressure systems and capped warm sectors. Then, the wave actually ejected, folks chased, and supercells and tornadoes were documented from Texas to Minnesota. Some days were memorable, and others were disappointments. That's spring! That's storm chasing.

So here we go again... models are hinting at another period of southwesterly flow aloft over the top of an increasingly moist and unstable region from the Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest, entering what is historically the peak of severe weather season in North America. The result could be an extended period of favorable storm chasing opportunities for storm chasers, and another stressful run for residents who have already been sent running to their basements plenty in March - early April.

That being said, there are already a couple of reasons to temper the excitement or anxiety.

The same upper-level disturbance triggering severe storms in Texas today will take for-freaking-ever to vacate the area, and it's lingering presence over Florida and the Caribbean could delay the return of quality moisture northward into the Plains and Midwest next week. The jet stream has really wanted to trend northward with its mean flow early this year (this is a big reason why we've got two cut-off lows sitting over the U.S.), and while the models insist on returning to what would be a "normal" look in mid-May with a trough over the western U.S., southwest flow and an active storm track over the central U.S. this could end up being a mirage with the incoming trough instead pinching itself off into another cut-off low while the mean flow runs north through Canada.

It's worth watching, and as consistency has grown in recent days so has my confidence in a potentially stormy period across Tornado Alley around May 14-21. Still, we know absolutely nothing about the details.

For now, watch it, and try not to get hung up on the highest or lowest end scenarios. We remember days like April 26, 1991 or May 3, 1999 or active stretches like late May 2008 for a reason - they were days or periods where EVERYTHING came together correctly. Alternatively we remember storm chasing dead zones like May-June 2012 because they were the times when everything was as poorly aligned as possible. Reality usually ends up somewhere in between.

After a super quiet start to storm chasing activity across Tornado Alley in May 2025, I'd expect the last half of the month to drag us back closer to the mean. It's probably going to storm soon - and we'll figure out where in due time.