Stormy Finish to November? | Series of Severe Storms, Heavy Rainfall Possible Nov 18-25

A series of high-impact storm systems could bring rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to portions of the Southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys during the last ten days of November.

Continental ridging and weak jet stream flow has kept the weather pattern relatively quiet east of the Rockies over the last two months allowing drought to quickly expand from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley.

A big pattern change is gaining traction in medium range forecast guidance which could have a series of high impact storm systems tracking across these same regions with severe storms and heavy rainfall in the forecast over the last ten days of November.

Before we dive into that, here's a look at the latest drought monitor and the October 500 mb height pattern featuring a large continental ridge of high pressure:

The advertised pattern shift:

The first big shot of cold air spilled into the central and eastern U.S. early this week, and a period of ridging will allow mild air to once again expand through the weekend. As we enter the early part of next week we'll shift to a trough west / ridge east alignment over North America, featuring an impactful Bermuda high which will aid in pumping deep moisture northward ahead of a series of storm systems ejecting across the Southern Plains. The intense Bermuda high and southeast U.S. ridge would then allow these upper-level waves to take on a negative-tilt as they lift into the Great Lakes.

The result is a potential period of high-impact storm systems lifting from the Southern Plains into the Midwest from approximately November 18-25, with long-range guidance perhaps dragging this pattern into the last days of November.

We'll hold off on specifics until we get into the weekend, but it appears the most significant storm systems are being focused in the Nov 19-20, and Nov 22-23 time frames from Oklahoma and Texas into the Ohio Valley. All of this is still 6 to 10 days out, but I've mostly bit my tongue as we've gone through several days of consistent forecasts from global models depicting a pattern that could support multiple days of organized severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potential across this broad region and this is starting to feel like something that's going to happen in one form or another. Whether it's a rainy week, or a severe week, we'll sort out in coming days.

Storm chasers will get excited for a "second season" which is not always a given annually, but if nothing else this is desperately needed moisture for these regions after several months of dry conditions. A series of soaking rains before any sort of winter deep freeze would be extremely beneficial for soil moisture conditions heading into 2026.