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The Problem With Sunday's Chase in KS/OK/TX

It's a weekend in late March and there's a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This has storm chasers across Tornado Alley antsy for an early season opportunity to get out and stretch their legs. It's sometimes hard for me to shrug off a weekend opportunity to get out to the alley, but this one is fairly easy to pass on given the entire season ahead and some, or at least one really big problem with the event.

Here's my problem with Sunday's severe weather setup in the Plains:

A trough over Florida is not what you want to see on a chase day in the Central U.S.

The night before the potential chase dew points are in the 30s across the target area, and low-level flow is NORTHERLY across the Gulf of Mexico. So, you're less than 24 hours out from go-time, your moisture is sparse at best, deep moisture is hundreds of miles away and being blown further away.

Return flow and moisture advection will crank up during the day on Sunday as we see cyclogenesis over the Central Plains but I'm afraid it will be too little too late. Could the synoptics and forcing ahead of the surface low force a stronger storm or two to erupt at dusk creating a pretty storm scene or two - totally. But, it's a far cry of what a big trough like this could be capable of with better antecedent conditions.

I think it'll be another week or so before we start seeing more meaningful trough ejections and robust severe weather risks across the Central U.S.

It's coming.


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