Strong Tornado Risk in Texas and Louisiana Tonight

All eyes are on eastern Texas and western Louisiana this evening as ingredients come together for a few sustained supercells and the potential for a strong tornado or two if things stay semi-discrete through sunset.

A deep upper-level trough is swinging through the southern Plains, kicking out a strong 60-70 kt mid-level jet across Texas into Arkansas. At the surface, a north-lifting warm front is pulling humid Gulf air northward, while afternoon heating helps destabilize the atmosphere. By late day, a corridor of moderate CAPE and impressive shear will overlap across east Texas into western Louisiana, right where storms are expected to intensify.

If we can get a few isolated storms to stay ahead of the developing line especially between 5 PM and 10 PM, they’ll have the environment to become sustained, rotating supercells. That means large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are on the table, with at least a conditional threat for one or two stronger tornadoes if storms remain organized after dark.

As storms merge later in the evening and congeal into a squall line, the primary hazard should shift toward damaging winds, stretching east across central Louisiana and possibly into southern Mississippi overnight.

It’s one of those setups where timing and storm mode will tell the story, if things stay messy, it’s mostly a rainy, flash-flood, wind-driven event. If a few cells stay discrete into the evening, we could see a few significant storms across the Piney Woods and into western Louisiana.

From a storm observation standpoint, the area I’m watching most closely is a zone from Lufkin up through Crockett and on toward Nacogdoches, then east into western Louisiana near Natchitoches and Alexandria. This corridor lines up nicely with the strongest evening shear profiles, especially along and just north of the warm front where low-level winds back and strengthen after sunset.

If storms can stay semi-discrete in this region between 5–10 PM, the environment shown on the map really supports sustained supercells with a legit tornado threat. The HRRR soundings highlight strong low-level curvature and impressive deep layer shear, suggesting any storm that roots in the warm sector could spin efficiently.

Farther south toward Houston and the upper Texas coast, storms will likely become more linear and messy, with the main concerns shifting toward damaging winds and pockets of hail as the boundary pushes east.

So if you’re tracking this in real time, watch that Lufkin → Natchitoches → Alexandria corridor around dusk — that’s where the atmosphere looks primed for the strongest storms before things consolidate later tonight.