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Supercell Sunday in the Southern U.S.

A lot of folks have the Superbowl on their minds this Sunday afternoon, but supercell thunderstorms are leaving swaths of severe hail and threatening to produce strong tornadoes across portions of eastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and western/central Mississippi.


The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (Level 2 out of 5) driven by a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes and a 30% hatched risk for large hail on their latest outlook for Sunday afternoon & evening - both of these suggest an elevated risk for EF-2+ tornadoes and hail 2" in diameter or greater.


Here is their latest Day One Severe Weather Outlook graphic and a snippet of their discussion:






Checking SPC Mesoanalysis data across the region...


Plenty of mid-level wind shear supportive of supercells and perhaps enhancing the risk for significant hail (2"+) along with steep lapse rates near and south of the warm frontal zone. At least partial clearing on visible satellite across the warm sector as well.






I do have some questions about the longevity of the tornado risk across the region with the broader warm sector mostly displaying long hodographs, favoring non-tornadic supercells with more favorable low-level wind profiles mostly tucked in near the warm front and further east across the more weakly unstable regions of the warm sector - but I'm also not the most qualified Southern U.S. supercell & tornado nowcasting authority.


Will be keeping at least one eye on this one while enjoying Superbowl Sunday festivities.

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