A stormy several day stretch in the central U.S. begins tonight with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible over portions of Missouri late this afternoon into tonight. An emerging upper-level low over the western U.S. will send multiple shortwave troughs over the Central Plains and Midwest atop a warm and increasingly moist warm sector.
An initial surface low will spin up in the vicinity of Kansas City on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a marginally unstable warm sector developing across Missouri. The strongest forcing and best upper-level flow will be somewhat displaced from each other, which when coupled with the capping inversion and only marginal instability should limit overall coverage of any severe storms, especially closer to the Kansas/Missouri border during daylight hours.
Storm chasers hoping for daylight storm observation opportunities will probably want to post up very near the Kansas City metro, exercising great patience this afternoon waiting for (hopefully) just-in-time thunderstorm initiation before sunset. Grab some scenic storm views at dusk, enjoy some lightning, and call it a day before better (probably, anyway) opportunities on Wednesday and Thursday. Any robust storms that develop in this area could produce large hail or 60 MPH wind gusts.
More numerous, elevated thunderstorm activity should develop further east later in the overnight period perhaps producing some large hail into the early morning hours as they shift eastward into western Illinois.
It's pretty rare to get back to back to back severe thunderstorm setups over the same general geographic area this time of year - good luck to those using spring break or some early season PTO to get in on the early action!
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