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Stormy Spring Ahead, But Not Yet...

With all of the recent buzz driven by new seasonal forecast data supporting a forecast for an active spring storm season across the Plains and Midwest it's probably worth pointing out that it's anything but full steam ahead...

Now, to be fair, we've got three straight days of 'slight risk' outlooks from the Southern Plains into the Southeast today through Saturday but none of these days looks terribly straight forward for storm observation purposes. Instead, a broad warm sector with several days of upper-level support should lead to widespread rain & thunderstorms with a few pockets of severe weather possible March 7-9.

Late next week global forecast models are picking up on another storm system expected to traverse somewhere from the Southern Plains into the Southeast. Similarly, it's not yet one that I think offers slam-dunk chasing opportunities. You can already see how the stronger northern branch of the jet stream wants to cut off the emerging southwest trough preventing it from fulling ejecting across the Plains. Still, we'll watch this one for a potential dryline chase opportunity late next week.

What follows is likely to be a period of Great Lakes/Eastern U.S. troughing which should allow for a cooler, quieter finish to the month of March across the Central U.S.

This is expected to be a temporary pause or pattern reset, and all eyes will be searching for the catalyst that will tip us back into an active storm track across the Plains and Midwest in April onward as seasonal models continue to insist will be the case.

Will April roar to life, or will it be a gradual uptick into the heart of traditional storm season?


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