Expected storm mode today continues to be “messy” with a broad region of the Lower Mississippi Valley under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on the mid-morning Day One Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
I do expect to see one or two more organized line segments emerge by early afternoon Saturday, perhaps carrying an embedded tornado risk. The most favorable zone for any tornado risk probably lifts northeast with stronger low-level flow from eastern Arkansas into Tennessee and Kentucky.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the Little Rock - Memphis - Nashville corridor mid-day on Saturday for a few red polygons.
Storm Chasing Notes: I’m not telling anyone anything new by suggesting messy storm mode + Southern U.S. = likely frustrating storm observation conditions. Still, for those looking to spend their Saturday in the stormy South, a window of opportunity may present itself across the Mississippi Delta region mid-day as any hypothetical organized storms or line segments track through the area.
Here’s what the experts are saying ahead of today’s storms:
Storm Prediction Center Day One Outlook:
THE TORNADO AND WIND THREATS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION, GIVEN THAT AREA'S PROBABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. HOWEVER, CONCERNS OVER STORM MORPHOLOGY --
PARTICULARLY POTENTIAL FOR MESSY/EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE MODES AND SHORT DURATION OF FAVORABLY MATURE SUPERCELL/MESOCYCLONE PRODUCTION --
REMAIN LARGE.