The weather pattern is mostly quiet across the Central U.S. today thanks to a large ridge anchored over the Central Plains. To find organized severe storms in a pattern such as this, one must go north!
The combination of afternoon heating and an incoming shortwave riding over the top of the ridge should kick-off scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern Montana. A supercell or two is possible, but I think the more likely outcome is a cluster of thunderstorms that will efficiently produce strong downburst winds. A swath of damaging winds is possible across southern and eastern Montana during the afternoon and evening hours before storms fade around sunset.
Isolated strong storms are possible further south into eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska with a low risk for severe hail or damaging wind gusts.
I wouldn't count on anything otherworldly on the High Plains today, but you also just can't count it out on a day like this. A sculpted shelf cloud and some blowing dust at dusk could be on the table later today in parts of southeast Montana, and the potential for wind-blown hail should not be discounted by anyone in the path of today's storms.
A slightly more robust severe weather risk repeats over the same areas tomorrow.
Tues, Aug 20th Severe Weather Outlook:
Large ridge axis over the Central Plains, with upper-level lows over the Eastern U.S. and Pacific Coast:
Forecast instability mid-day Tuesday from the HRRR, which is more aggressive in mixing out moisture/instability through the afternoon than the NAM:
NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity depicts a storm cluster developing over southern Montana with strong winds as the storms move into eastern Montana during the afternoon:
Any storm chasing vagabonds still roaming the High Plains today?
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