We're still roughly five days out, but if you flip back to the most recent blog post on the site the idea that the last week of February could deliver organized severe weather to the Central U.S. is actually a long-lived, increasingly consistent idea that began showing up on global ensembles a week ago.
Deterministic models are having their say now, and the ECMWF and GFS continue to converge on a high-impact storm system sweeping through the Central & Southern U.S. next Tuesday and Wednesday, February 27-28.
The 12z ECMWF verbatim sends alarm bells off for me. We've got a dryline feature in the Mississippi Valley with relatively subtle forcing for a late-winter/early spring storm system that allows for more discrete convection instead of a strongly forced squall line along a razor sharp cold front.
I'm going to keep from getting too into the weeds with this one until the weekend, but these ideas are supported by the 12z GFS as well. Where things set up, when in that Tuesday-Wednesday time frame are parameters maximized, ceiling and floor of the event are all still very much TBD.
The experts in the room have taken notice as well - the Storm Prediction Center introduced severe probabilities on their Days 6 and 7 outlooks.
