Multi-Day Severe Weather Sequence Upcoming | April 11-15

A multi-day severe weather sequence is expected this weekend into early next week with two potential favored zones across the Midwest and Southern Plains.

It's been a really fun, busy week. Tuesday and Wednesday I did an out and back to Kearney, Nebraska for one more seasonal outlook / weather presentation in the ag industry before closing the book on the pre-growing season winter meeting speaking circuit. Great group out there, at the cost of two days of ten hour drives and 12 AM bedtimes followed by my normal 4:30-5:00 AM alarm. Yesterday I drove up to DeKalb, IL to visit my alma mater and present to and hang out with the meteorology students in the NIU AMS chapter. They have a seriously talented group up there this year and it was really fun to hear some of their stories from the recent ICECHIP field campaign.

All that to say, it's been tough to actually sink my teeth into the forecast details for the upcoming active stretch of stormy weather which has admittedly been frustrating as a guy who is generally supposed to know what's going on in that world. I'm going to try to do a mix of getting caught up to where I feel like I've got a grip on how things are trying to unfold while also letting my brain rest today, but I also need to move my body a little bit after three days of sitting in the car ahead of more potential time sitting in the car this weekend into early next week. Kind of feels like Friday and Saturday are the two days to reset and re-calibrate before things get wild for a little here in mid-April.

Two zones are starting to stand out to me.

I think in general, I'm falling out of love with the classic dryline play for a couple of reasons. Most of it has to do with a lack of forcing as you're not really getting the necessary trough ejections over the dryline and your classic "tornado alley" zone up and down I-35.

On Saturday there will be a low risk for severe weather from the Texas and New Mexico border northward into Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the southern portion of this zone with a level 2 of 5 slight risk on their latest Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook. There will be severe storms on Saturday PM, especially across the Red River region of Texas and Oklahoma, I just don't think the storm observing will be high quality for a few reasons. It's a little early in the sequence, is the short of it.

You've got a fairly poorly time wave coming in from the sub-tropical jet that doesn't really overspread central Texas until after 0z / dark on Saturday night. During daylight hours you're really lacking a good EML to charge the atmosphere, so at primetime during the late evening the environment across the New Mexico - Texas - Oklahoma corridor is characterized by puny lapse rates, weak forcing along the dryline, and an after-dark jet stream wave and low-level jet response.

There is a northern wave that, associated with warm air advection could trigger a couple of strong storms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with this convection likely carrying on into the Saturday overnight as it moves east.

I expect an afternoon and evening initiation of some "soft" convection, with rain and storms becoming widespread late Saturday night. A rather large MCS with heavy rainfall and a low risk for severe weather may spread east across the Red River into the Ozarks into Sunday morning.

That leads me into my issues with Sunday. With your poorly time Saturday night wave and big MCS, you're working over the environment along the dryline up and down I-35 from Texas into eastern Kansas. You're also between the departing wave, and the incoming wave that will drive the Monday - Wednesday risk. So your upper level support is being yanked away to the east leaving you with another day of poor forcing along the dryline, but admittedly better thermals. It's just that time of the year that I really get frustrated by random, "sexy" soundings plucked from the models. Okay, but show me a 500 mb chart and some surface winds and tell me why a storm would exist there.

I think there's hope for an enjoyable supercell on the dryline somewhere in Kansas or Oklahoma on Sunday evening and I'd 100% understand any storm chaser who'd want to be there just in case and get setup for whatever is looming in the days to follow. You're going to have much better thermals overhead on Sunday evening up and down the dryline, but I'm not confident in any one location from Kansas down into Texas where a particularly intense, sustained storm might develop.

I'm going to trail off with details as we get into Monday - Wednesday, even though this is the time frame where I'm most confidence in widespread, organized severe thunderstorms.

There are a couple of zones to watch on Monday, the first being along the warm front with a lead wave moving along the I-80 corridor with a potentially significant risk for severe weather in Iowa and perhaps parts of neighboring Nebraska, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois and the second being the dryline in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Both zones will have the potential for supercells with tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds, but we're still seeing shifts in the details that will dictate how significant that risk is in each zone.

Tuesday I think we're looking at a significant severe weather outbreak as the primary wave finally overspreads the Central U.S. Tuesday's event may unfold in bi-modal fashion with one focused zone over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana with a southern zone over the Red River/Ozarks.

Confidence starts to trail off even further on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised by a continued risk for organized severe storms in these two zone from the Midwest / Ohio Valley and down across the Southern Plains.

CSU-MLP extended range severe weather forecasts illustrate the "problem" trying to pick apart this upcoming sequence - you've got a massive geographic area that will be at risk for repeated rounds of severe weather... each day featuring potential issues or model disagreement that introduces some uncertainty. "Tuesday in the Midwest" continues to produce the loudest signal amongst global models and ensembles.

Don't let me derail any ideas you've already got - I really feel behind the ball here but in some ways that can play out as beneficial for me. I don't always do better with MORE time to overthink and stare at data for a weather event that's a week away. I'll be obsessively watching today and tonight, and hopefully spending my Saturday making more formal plans for my own storm observations over this upcoming stretch. Will it be my first trip to the Great Plains, or will my stomping grounds here in the Midwest see yet another rash of significant severe weather early in 2026?