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DAY 3: Honing in on Saturday's Upper Midwest Severe Storm Risk

I'm a little tight on time this afternoon as I wrap up a string of meetings and get ready for some evening family commitments, but I'm continuing to refine my thoughts for Saturday's (June 22) risk for organized severe storms and a potential chase day in the Upper Midwest. We'll get a little more nitty gritty with the various solutions being offered by high-resolution guidance tomorrow morning.

It still looks like we'll see a round of morning showers and thunderstorms track through southern Minnesota and Iowa during the pre-dawn hours and into Wisconsin and far northern Illinois after sunrise. This may play a role in the afternoon severe weather potential both by impacting the thermal field ahead of the approaching cold front and/or leaving one or more important boundaries behind.

As it is, the bones of the setup continue to look like one that should foster a corridor of severe thunderstorms from southern Wisconsin into eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri, or generally along a line from Madison, Wisconsin to Kansas City, Missouri. Uncertainties remain regarding storm mode and storm coverage, but I'm mostly getting a mixed mode, potentially messy vibe. Still plenty of room for a couple of hours of at least semi-discrete storm modes with the potential for all hazards, including an tornado or two. Wind damage risk should be the predominant risk, but I'm not yet getting widespread, high-end (d-word) vibes. Again, yet. It's also unclear just how far south and east any organized MCS that results may track after dark on Saturday night.

With tomorrow's more nitty gritty forecast discussion we'll talk more about where the most enjoyable spot for observing severe storms may be - feels like eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois, for now.


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