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CubsWx: vs Marlins | Apr 18 -21

The Cubs return after a long West Coast road trip to find Wrigleyville just about how they left it: in April Mode.


We've got one 6:40p start, followed by a trio of 1:20's, as god intended. Unfortunately, the Thursday night game, as you might have picked up on, is the one with some issues. Let's dig in a bit.


A surface low will move from about St. Louis to Fort Wayne, bringing severe weather along and south of that line. To the north, a good area of rain will develop in IA/MO/Western IL within a healthy pool of moisture for this time of year. That will drag into the Chicago area by late afternoon/early evening and linger for a few hours at least. Right now, the window for rain seems to be from about 4pm to 10pm, peaking right around game start. Rain should be light to moderate, with a heavy burst possible.


Short-range models appear to be in good agreement about this. Here's simulated radar near first pitch, from three common models. Maps: tropicaltidbits.com


And near the end of the three-hour "game window":


Models (and NWS Chicago) are suggesting around a half-inch of rain:


So: rain in the game window? Check. Heavy rain in the game window? ...Sort of?


There is some wiggle room for any given specific location in the area to see a few tenths more or less one way or the other. If Wrigley checked in with .2"? We're talking a delay, maybe not even that. This would be the reasonable high end good outcome. If Wrigley gets .8" to an inch, I'm starting to worry that, combined with the timing & schedule, it's just a little too easy to flip one of these day games into a double header. (Conjecture, of course.) That's your reasonable low end bad outcome.


Did I mention it'll also be in the mid to upper 40s with North/Northeast winds gusting in from RF/CF around 30mph?


Yeesh. Your decision making on this one will depend on your tolerance for pain. Grabbing a coat, a poncho and a beer and hoping for the best. Even the middle-of-the-road outcome is an annoying delay early on that lasts an hour or two. Get that good attitude (and beverage ingestion) on early, or it will be a bad time lol. I do want to note that the Cubs this year have had quite a high level of patience on these rainy April days.


The rest of these day games are looking chilly, but unproblematic.


Friday: Sunny & Upper 40s/Low 50s, winds out to RF 10-20+

Saturday: Partly Sunny, Upper 40s/Low 50s, winds in from LF Corner 10-20mph.

Sunday: (My goodness, go to this one) Sunshine, Low 50s to Upper 50s, Light & Variable winds.


So - choose your own adventure Thursday. If it busts, maybe you'll have a chilly but easy game 2 of a double header to attend for your trouble. April showers & chill continues. The 2024 Chicago Cubs roller coaster ride continues. Let's go Cubs.

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