A Few Strong Storms (and a tornado?) Possible in Iowa Today

I'm not out and about today, but as we get into the late summer and fall portion of the storm observation season (i.e. the home stretch) I love these opportunities to get out and observe a storm on the increasingly tired-looking, yellowing and browning landscape of the Midwest. Corn and soybean crops are beginning to near harvest and are turning brown, with the first hints of color even starting to appear in some of the trees (a little heat stress hasn't hurt there) and the contrast with late season stormy skies can be really fun.

If I were heading out today I'd probably be starting somewhere north of Des Moines. Morning storms have mostly cleared out, and the I-35 corridor across much of Iowa is sitting under late-morning sunshine. Moderate to strong instability on the order of 2000-3000 j/kg is expected ahead of a southeast moving cold front by mid-afternoon. A stout cap may keep a lid on things into the late afternoon, but at least isolated strong storms should begin erupting across north-central Iowa between 4-7 PM CT, with a broken line or cluster of storms emerging after 9 PM.

The most likely outcome today is a few strong to severe storms along the front from northeast Iowa into central and perhaps west-central Iowa producing 60 mph winds and a few instances of hail around 1.5" in diameter. Tornadoes aren't a given today, but a brief tornado can't be ruled out by any supercell that can sustain itself for an hour or two across central Iowa.

The same front sags further southeast into parts of Illinois, Indiana, and surrounding areas of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Thursday and while isolated strong storms will continue to accompany the front, parameters are never really expected to reach high-end, volatile levels.