Finally, Time to Unwind, So-Cal Tornadoes, Stormy Outlook for November
I was able to intentionally disconnect from the weather machine last week as I traveled down to Florida to spend "Fall Break" with my in-laws. The wife + kiddo and I flew down to Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 10th which is where the family lives, and then we all drove down to Orlando together for a few days at Disney World. Her family loves Disney, and I think this was my 3rd time tagging along over the last 15 years. I don't get as amped in the days leading up the trip which I think is pretty typical dad mode - focused on how much logistics and money will be involved - and then I end up having a blast, coming home with a ton of great memories with the family.
It's easy to take weather and work with me everywhere these days, but it's nice to leave it all behind and spend a day at Magic Kingdom eating dinner with Farmer Mickey or wandering around in different worlds in Animal Kingdom. There was an international food and beverage festival going on at Epcot, too! My only blunder was not realizing there was a big Space-X launch complete with a jelly fish cloud literally as I was sitting inside sipping my morning coffee on the 13th.
My wife Sophie is at her absolute peak when she's in Disney-Mom mode.
The weather feels like it's on pause right now across the Plains and Midwest with a persistent ridge of high pressure keeping the pattern clear. Every day is the same - sunny and mild afternoons with crisp and clear overnights. Great weather for farmers as they wrap up harvest and fall field activities, and admittedly a nice pause during what has become my usual time for mental unwinding and year-end projects. Projects + unwinding might sound contradictory, but as I head into Year 10 working full-time in the ag-weather industry alongside my storm chasing/severe weather journalism work I'm beginning to see a flow that sets up each year.
I hit the ground running right after the holidays with my busy work travel season ramping up in January. I'll be on the road most of the next 8-12 weeks speaking at winter meetings and conferences, mostly in the ag industry. It's a non-stop cycle of preparing for talks, traveling to/from talks, giving talks, and fitting my normal daily work in between it all. A lot of working from airports, hotels, and coffeeshops in between being on stage in front of hundreds of weather curious folks. It's a lot of fun until it's not. I'm usually so non-stop busy that this acts like a portal that time warps me straight into March and the beginning of severe weather season across the U.S. and in years like 2026 this can mean non-stop forecasting + documenting severe weather events all the way into the summer months. Summer brings its own severe weather problems with tons of weather attention on crops and the growing season overall, while I try to squeeze a couple trips to the lake and some family fun in between it all. By late summer I'm usually as tired and exhausted as crops and gardens across the Midwest, and it's right around this time as fall harvest concludes and the weather pattern (ideally) slows down that I'm able to truly unplug. Hurricane Isaias tried to derail things a little and gave me a harder-than-necessary last few days of work before the trip, but it was nice to step away from the weather while not having any major weather events tugging at my attention. Now through the holidays, bursts of active weather aside, is when I can try my best to step away and do pure joy things like play too much video games, go to Disney, take my wife on a fancy date, or nap through an entire Saturday with college football on TV.
In addition to taking some time away, it's nice to sink into some projects that I always look forward to post-storm season. I'm deep into editing my year-end storm chasing flick SKYDRAMA 2026, and have been spending a lot of time deep cleaning and organizing ignored corners of the house. I'm forever working on how to better organize my thoughts, plans, projects, content underneath the SKYDRAMA Weather Co. umbrella and there may be some subtle changes coming to the blog/website through the winter. I'm realizing it's the only time of the year I have the brain space and time to work on that sort of structural change. Fall and early winter is when I'm able to build the bones of what will support me through the next storm season. Other nights, like yesterday, it's nice to just hang out in the backyard tapping into some childhood nostalgia shooting hoops until its too dark outside to see anything.
Sadly, my 15 foot Mexican torch sunflower plant did not survive the windy cold front that swept through while we were away. This was definitely my prize plant this year and maybe my favorite ever? If you know about Mexican torch sunflowers, you know... but if you don't, these things become really magnificant plants that are full of beautiful red-orange blooms that attract Monarchs and hummingbirds like crazy. Another middle-aged thing I enjoy doing on quiet days... sitting in my backyard watching the birds and the bees. The fact that this all grew from a seed that I planted in May... look at the TRUNK on this guy! I've got a few smaller plants still growing, but I know their days are numbered.
The weather pattern in the Midwest and basically everywhere east of the Rockies looks restful into the end of the month with persistent high pressure keeping the region quiet. This means mild and sunny afternoons and crisp, clear overnights and no major rain or storms forecast through around Halloween.
Near-term, the greatest risk for severe storms will be found across southern California and portions of the southwest U.S. and interior Rockies. I ain't messing with all that, but I do expect some rather interesting storms down that way between Tuesday night and Thursday morning.
Instability will be more meager across southern California with the risk there mostly limited to one or two bands of low-topped showers and storms, a few of which may produce gusty winds or an isolated embedded tornado.
Across central and southern Arizona the risk is a little more robust, with scattered intense storms including a few supercells likely to erupt, especially on Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday morning. Severe winds and hail, along with isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding are possible. The risk for a few stronger storms should continue to expand northward into portions of the interior Rockies through the day on Thursday.
Heading into week 2 (late October into early November) the pattern looks to open up east of the Rockies, though there continues to be a ton of flux in when/where/how that all unfolds. There's not a lot of strong evidence that this return to storminess across the Plains and Midwest is immediately accompanied by significant severe weather at this range. Ideally, beneficial rains can return to these areas without too much bite. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see the return of organized severe storms across portions of the Southern Plains and Midwest during the month of November as the sub-tropical jet stream becomes a more impactful piece to the weather machine across the U.S.
