Significant Severe Storm Observation Possible Near Chicago This Evening

I actually did venture out yesterday, spent most of my evening in the vicinity of some of the tornadoes that occurred overnight. I was in Streator, revisiting the tornado path from June 11th on the east side of town around 7 PM waiting on initiation of supercells in the area. As we got closer to sunset, I lost interest in the idea of chasing overnight storms. Tomorrow, I figured! Part of me is annoyed to miss out on the nocturnal tornado event in the region as it appears some of the tornadoes were visible and perhaps beneath some very photogenic supercells, but at this point in the storm season I'm not about beating myself up for not being there for 11 PM tornadoes.

Like I said... another chance today!

I won't get too into specifics, but the recipe is much the same. Most high-resolution guidance goes after a strong to extremely unstable environment across northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana, with around 6000 j/kg of surface based CAPE thanks to summertime heat and humidity with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. It doesn't take much to ignite that type of storm fuel, and it appears we'll have another subtle jet stream disturbance and boundary draped across the area to support storm initiation and organization.

There are some logistical annoyances, it's a boom or bust scenario that could produce a memorable storm or a frustrating mess of storms focused over a major metropolitan area (Chicago). That being said, I'm not sure I can pass on the chance to see what this sort of atmopsheric powder keg does when it erupts and potentially interacts with a lake-modified baroclinic zone/frontal boundary. Could be nothing, could be a big supercell with attendant tornado risk, could be explosive severe storm development with a rapid escalation into a big mean wind bag with 80 mph winds.

Lot of details still to be resolved, but lots of signs pointing toward intense storms across northeast Illinois, potentially in the vicinity of the Chicago metro within an environment supportive of significant severe weather impacts.

My preference would be for the southern half of my target zone to become the focal point with more freedom south of the metro, but there does seem to be a pretty loud signal this morning focused on the north side of my zone, closer to I-90 from Rockford toward the northwest side of the metro.

As always, we'll see. I've got stuff to work on in town until at least 1 PM, but I'll probably migrate north after that.