Saturday Severe Weather Risk Continues to Evolve (Midwest + Mid-South)

A big storm system (the first in many months!) will eject into the Central U.S. this weekend with an area of low pressure developing and tracking through the Midwest bringing a cold front and another shot of cooler autumn air into the region.

Ahead of the storm system, a warm and moist environment will fuel the development of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. As we get a little closer, I'm starting to get higher confidence in a couple of different corridors of potential severe storms.

Without getting into specifics, I'm starting to think we might end up with a fast-moving line of storms or potential QLCS with a tornado + wind risk from eastern Missouri parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. To the south I think there's a potentially higher risk for a couple of isolated supercells surrounded by storm clusters with all severe weather hazards possible.

I don't need to be reminded that we're still 4 days out from this entire evolution and you can probably toss these hunches in another 24 hours.