High Plains Supercells, Structure + Tornado Potential Today

A classic fall lee cyclone is taking shape across eastern Colorado today, tightening up the pressure gradient and pulling low-level moisture northward into the southern and central High Plains. As that moisture seeps in, instability will gradually build — nothing dramatic, but enough to get storms going later in the day.

Big upper-level disturbance tracks over the Rockies with a 60-80 knot 500 mb jet streak

Low-level jet with 40+ knots of southerly flow draws moisture northward and increases hodograph curvature.

50-55 degree F dew points across the Central High Plains, drawn north by low-level jet

500-1000 j/kg surface based CAPE with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 deg/C will support a few intense updrafts with severe potential.

Forecast soundings show 500–1000 J/kg of MLCAPE paired with 45–50 knots of effective shear, a combination that supports organized storms and a few supercells despite the modest instability. Mid-level lapse rates are decent, so isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be the main threats.

One interesting wrinkle: model hodographs show a touch of low-level turning from northeast Colorado into northern New Mexico, hinting that a brief tornado can’t be ruled out if a storm manages to stay surface-based in that area.

Bottom line: it’s not a blockbuster setup, but may be a photogenic High Plains day with a few structured storms possible from northern New Mexico through eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. One of those “don’t sleep on it” chase days.