Tornadoes, Fast-Moving QLCS Likely Across TX & LA on Sat, Feb 14
- Andrew Pritchard
- 13 hours ago
- 2 min read
SATURDAY MORNING EDIT:
Here's a fresh look at the morning HRRR, showing my internal "Conditional Storm Severity Index" along with simulated reflectivity, 0-3 km updraft helicity hourly max swaths, and maximum wind gusts. This plot reflects a corridor of potential embedded tornadoes within the fast-moving line of storms in east Texas and central/southern Louisiana on Saturday night, along with the potential for 60-70 mph wind gusts along the leading edge.
From Friday Night:
A compact, intense upper-level disturbance will swing east from Texas along the Gulf coast early this weekend with an area of low pressure spinning up over central Texas on Saturday. Ahead of this disturbance instability will be rather modest, but strong forcing within a region of strong ascent and a highly sheared warm sector should be enough to kick off a fast-moving line of storms that may be riddled with circulations for about 3-6 hours as it tracks across east Texas and Louisiana late Saturday evening into Saturday night.
Prime time will probably be somewhere between 4 PM - 12 AM CT on Saturday within this corridor (HRRR forecast for 10 PM shown):
Loop of dew points, 500 mb winds, and simulated reflectivity from the HRRR - watch as the upper-level ejects and matures, moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf and a line of storms erupts on Saturday afternoon:
A quick glance at a modeled sounding across central Louisiana early Saturday night shows a rather "skinny" instability profile, but perhaps just enough juice in the lowest levels to do some work with that big, loopy hodograph. This isn't the type of environment that goes wild with monster supercells, but it can be enough for a kinky, little QLCS with a few embedded tornadoes and bowing segments producing 60 mph wind gusts.
Probably not a great day for observing storms and/or tornadoes, but it's enough to start getting exciting about the prospects of spring, and stormy weather after a long, cold winter east of the Rockies.