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24 Hours of High-Impact Destructive Storms Possible from the Northern Plains to the Midwest

Numerous severe storms are expected to impact portions of the Northern Plains and Midwest over the next 24-36 hours. Here are my thoughts shortly before Noon on Tuesday:

Thunderstorms should organize this afternoon across eastern Montana and the Dakotas, and begin to track southeastward. A severe cluster of storms should track out of southern South Dakota and into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late this evening into tonight.

Significant severe weather with wind-blown hail will be possible in/near cities like Omaha, Lincoln, Grand Island, and Columbus in eastern Nebraska.

Severe storms may impact portions of western Iowa and northwest Missouri tonight, perhaps bringing 60 MPH winds into the Des Moines and Kansas City areas by the Midnight hour Tue night - Wed morning.

Confidence begins to erode heading deeper into the day on Wednesday.

Higher confidence surrounds the likelihood of one or more rounds of severe storms across Missouri on Wednesday, from either or both of a continuance of morning storms and renewed evening thunderstorm development along the outflow reinforced frontal boundary.

Which brings me to the green “low confidence” zone across eastern Iowa, Illinois, and western Indiana. Here, it seems that three scenarios exist.

  1. Storms continue across Iowa into Illinois in the morning with severe impacts

  2. Morning storms from Iowa die out, with left-over cloud debris capping the downstream environment and preventing afternoon storms in this area or

  3. the highest end, but most unlikely scenario involves morning storms from Iowa dying quickly, allowing unimpeded sunshine across northern/central Illinois ahead of the incoming wave. This could lead to renewed afternoon development supportive of all hazards. Again - highest ceiling, but least likely scenario of the three.

What’s most likely in all this is a rough Tuesday evening across portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, and multiple rounds of Wednesday storms from Kansas City to St. Louis with a high-ceiling, low-floor severe potential across eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.


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